Satellite estimates and subpixel variability of rainfall in a semi-arid grassland          下载免费PDF全文

Yong Chen  Jing Duan  Junling An  Huizhi Liu  Ulrich G?rsdorf  Franz H.Berger 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(5):24-29

卫星估雨精度的不确定性受到当地降雨类型和像元内降雨非均匀性影响,而结合这两个关键因素开展半干旱草原卫星估雨的研究有限.2009年夏,我们在中国锡林郭勒半干旱草原用多部微雨雷达和雨量计构建了9 km卫星像元降雨观测网,观测了像元内降雨非均匀性(空间变异系数CV),并评估了卫星估雨精度.结果表明:(1)CV值受像元内平均降雨量,降雨类型,降雨云面积及移向等影响,如高Cv值的降雨过程大多为平均降雨量小,对流性降雨过程,降雨云边缘像元CV值较高;(2)TRMM 3B42V7卫星估雨产品适用性较好,CMORPH和PERSIANN次之,但TRMM 3B42V7易在半干旱草原湖泊处高估降雨.  相似文献   

两方程湍流模型对内背风波数值模拟的影响          下载免费PDF全文

Xuhui Hu  Xuefeng Zhang  Lei Lin  Lianxin Zhang  Shifan Wang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(5):30-36

为了深入理解非静力近似下的波-湍相互作用问题,本研究在σ坐标的海洋环境研究和预报模型(MERF)中引入常用的Mellor-Yamada两方程湍混合参数化方案(MY2.5),评估垂向湍混合对小尺度背风波传播过程的影响.瞬时状态场的模拟结果表明,无论是否为非静力近似条件,上述湍参数化方案的引入都会减弱背风波传播的模拟效果.从时间平均场的试验结果来看,垂向湍混合过程会显著减小非静力近似和静力近似之间的差异.此外,能量收支分析的诊断结果表明,MY2.5方案会显著抑制陆坡地形下的背风波传播过程,进而将更多的潮能转化到不可逆的湍混合过程中.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal oscillation of the rainfall variability over Rwanda and evaluation of its subseasonal forecasting skill          下载免费PDF全文

Xuan Zhou  Lin Chen  Janet Umuhoza  Yifeng Cheng  Lu Wang  Ran Wang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(6):60-65

非洲中东部地区的经济主要依靠自给农业支撑,该地区农业经济对降水的变化尤为敏感.本文以卢旺达为例,观测分析指出卢旺达的次季节降雨主要集中在10-25天;根据次季节尺度降水变率的单点相关方法,发现卢旺达的次季节降水变率和周围区域变化一致;进一步合成结果显示该地区次季节降水变率与异常西风有关,这可追溯到赤道地区西传的赤道Rossby波.最后,本文评估了当前动力模式ECMWF对 卢旺达地区(即非洲中东部)次季节降水变率的预报能力,发现EC模式在对该区域降水和相关风场指数的预报技巧都在18天左右,且预报技巧表现出一定的年际差异,这可能与热带太平洋的背景海温信号有关.该工作增进了当 前对非洲中东部地区的次季节降水变率和预测水平的认知,并且对该地区国家粮食安全和防灾减灾具有启示性意义.  相似文献   

典型气象条件下城市热岛效应逐时变化特征          下载免费PDF全文

黄群芳  颜敏 《气象科学》2022,42(3):402-409

本文基于上海市典型城市和乡村站2017年逐时气象观测数据,详细分析和深入阐述了晴朗微风、大风、强降水和极端高温等典型气象条件下城市热岛强度逐时变化特征。通过分析上海市微风和极端高温等气象事件长期变化趋势,讨论了城市热岛效应未来变化趋势。伴随日出日落,年平均和微风晴朗条件下城市热岛强度呈现出快速降低—稳定低值—快速增加—稳定高值周期性昼夜变化特征,其中微风晴朗条件下城市热岛强度日内变化可高达7℃,而大风、强降水和高温等极端事件下城市热岛强度呈现出不一样的逐时变化特征。随着风速降低和气候变暖,过去40 a上海市微风和极端高温天气日数呈现快速增加趋势,其势必会加剧上海市城市热岛强度及其不利影响。  相似文献   

Effect of 2D spatial variability on slope reliability: A simplified FORM analysis     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(6):1631-1638

To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.  相似文献   

模式内部变率引起的1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间模拟的不确定性研究     

季涤非  刘利  李立娟  孙超  于馨竹  李锐喆  张诚  王斌 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(4):343-351

模式内部变率是模拟结果不确定性的重要来源,然而它对于1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响尚不清楚。因此,基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的多模式数据研究了模式内部变率对1.5℃和2℃升温阈值出现时间不确定性的影响以及对未来排放情景的敏感性。结果表明,模式内部变率对升温阈值出现时间模拟的影响与外强迫的影响相当,单个模式内部不同成员达到全球平均1.5℃或2℃增温的年份相差2~12年;其影响具有明显的空间差异,影响极大值出现在欧亚大陆以北洋面、白令海峡周围区域、北美东北部及其与格陵兰岛之间的海域、南半球高纬地区等;低排放情景下模式内部变率的影响大于高排放情景。  相似文献   

Study on Water Internal Recycle Process and Mechanism in Typical Mountain Areas of Inland Basins,Northwest China: Progress and Challenge     

Yongjian Ding  Shiqiang Zhang 《地球科学进展》2018,33(7):719-728

The water resource and its change of mountainous area are very important to the oasis economic system and ecosystem in the arid areas of northwest China. Accurately understanding the water transfer and circulation process among vegetation, soil, and atmosphere over different hydrological units in mountainous areas such as snow and ice, cold desert, forest and grassland is the basic scientific issue of water research in cold and arid regions, which is also the basis of water resource delicacy management and regulation. There are many research results on the hydrological function of different land covers in mountain areas, basin hydrological processes, however, there are only very limited studies on the water internal recycle at basin scale. The quantitative study on the mechanism of water internal recycle is still at the starting stage, which faces many challenges. The key project “Study on water internal recycle processes and mechanism in typical mountain areas of inland basins, Northwest China” funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China will select the Aksu River and Shule River Basin, which have better observation basis, as study area. The internal mechanism of moisture transfer and exchange process of different land cover and atmosphere, the internal mechanism of water cycle in the basin, and water transfer paths in atmosphere will be studied through enhancing runoff plot experiments on different land cover, analyzing the mechanism of water vapor transfer and exchange between different land covers in the watershed by isotope tracing on the water vapor flux of vegetation water, soil moisture and atmospheric moisture, improving the algorithms of remote sensing inversion and ground verification on land surface evapotranspiration on different land cover, and analyzing the water vapor flux from reanalysis data, and the coupling modeling of regional climate model and land surface process model. At last, the effect of different land cover in hydrological process of mountain area, and the impact of land cover on downstream oasis will be systematically analyzed.  相似文献   

Dominant Modes of Interannual Variability in Atmospheric Water Vapor Content over East Asia during Winter and Their Associated Mechanisms     

Wenyue HE  Bo SUN  Huijun WANG 《大气科学进展》2021,38(10):1706-1722

Atmospheric water vapor content(WVC) is a critical factor for East Asian winter precipitation. This study investigates the dominant modes of interannual variability in WVC over East Asia during winter and their underlying mechanisms.Based on the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) method, the leading mode(EOF1, R~2 = 28.9%) of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a meridional dipole pattern characterized by opposite WVC anomalies over northeastern China and eastern China; the second mode(EOF2, R~2 = 24.3%) of the interannual variability in the East Asian winter WVC exhibits a monopole pattern characterized by consistent WVC anomalies over eastern China. EOF1 is mainly modulated by two anomalous zonal water vapor transport(WVT) branches over northeastern China and eastern China, which are associated with an anomalous atmospheric wave train over Eurasia affected by sea ice cover in the Kara Sea-Barents Sea(SIC-KSBS) area in the preceding October-November(ON). EOF2 is mainly modulated by an anomalous westerly WVT branch over eastern China, which is associated with a circumglobal atmospheric zonal wave train in the Northern Hemisphere. This circumglobal zonal wave train is modulated by concurrent central and eastern tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. The SIC-KSBS anomalies in ON and the concurrent SST anomalies over tropical Pacific may partially account for the interannual variability of EOF1 and EOF2 winter WVC, and thus may provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate over East Asia.  相似文献   

Homogenization of the Daily Land Surface Temperature over the Mainland of China from 1960 through 2017     

Dan WANG  Aihui WANG  Xianghui KONG 《大气科学进展》2021,38(11):1811-1822

Land surface temperature(LST) is one of the most important factors in the land-atmosphere interaction process. Raw measured LSTs may contain biases due to instrument replacement, changes in recording procedures, and other non-climatic factors. This study attempts to reduce the above biases in raw daily measurements and achieves a homogenized daily LST dataset over China using 2360 stations from 1960 through 2017. The high-quality land surface air temperature(LSAT)dataset is used to correct the LST warming biases especially evident during cold months in regions north of 40°N due to the replacement of observation instruments around 2004. Subsequently, the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization(MASH) method is adopted to detect and then adjust the daily observed LST records. In total, 3.68 × 103 effective breakpoints in 1.65 × 106 monthly records(about 20%) are detected. A large number of these effective breakpoints are located over large parts of the Sichuan Basin and southern China. After the MASH procedure, LSTs at more than 80% of the breakpoints are adjusted within +/– 0.5°C, and of the remaining breakpoints, only 10% are adjusted over 1.5°C.Compared to the raw LST dataset over the whole domain, the homogenization significantly reduces the mean LST magnitude and its interannual variability as well as its linear trend at most stations. Finally, we perform preliminary analysis upon the homogenized LST and find that the annual mean LST averaged across China shows a significant warming trend [0.22°C(10 yr)–1]. The homogenized LST dataset can be further adapted for a variety of applications(e.g.,model evaluation and extreme event characterization).  相似文献   

Environmental stress and agricultural landownership in Africa     

《Global Environmental Change》2021

We examine how weather variability affects agricultural landownership rates in Africa, where at least half of the population depends on agriculture to earn a livelihood. In the absence of effective adaptation strategies, households that experience difficulties farming due to environmental stress might leave their land. With implications for demography – through migration – and political instability – when affected populations express grievances – changing landownership patterns could make existing development challenges on the continent even more difficult. We test our hypothesis that drier than average growing seasons will reduce landownership rates using Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Our DHS dataset includes interviews with 850,961 households in 35 African countries between 2005 and 2017. Compared to regions experiencing weather near the historical average, those with five consecutive dry growing seasons before the DHS experienced a 6.93% decline in the landownership rate. For every additional dry growing season during the five years before each survey, the landownership rate fell by 1.38%. A host of robustness checks support our general conclusion that drying conditions are associated with lower landownership rates.  相似文献